CommsDay Story of the Week

We have selected an article published in CommsDay on Wednesday, 3 December, as our story for this week.  The article deals with the NBN fibre upgrade program for the remaining 622,000 premises, out to 2032.  This is a matter that has been of particular interest to TelSoc and its members for many years, as part of our Broadband Futures work.  The notional per premises costs for the tail program are high, and the relevant figures have been highlighted in this reprint by TelSoc.  

Revealed: the planned schedule, forecast budget for the last 622K FTTN fibre upgrade

NBN Co’s copper-to-fibre program won’t be complete for up to 15 years under a newly released government project notice covering the upgrade pathway for the final 622,000 fibre-to-the-node premises. Details around this and the precise projected forecast costs of two major “NBN Transformation Projects” have now been released by the federal government as part of the notice.

Signed in mid-November and released last week, the notice confirms that NBN Co expects the “Network Upgrade Project, ”covering upgrades to its local fibre network and fixed wireless infrastructure, to be completed by the end of 2030. The work is to be funded by just over $3bn in federal equity announced in January and around $800m from NBN Co, totalling $3.829b.

A second project, the “NBN Premises Upgrade Project,” covers the premises-side work required to bring individual locations onto FTTP or other higher-speed pathways enabled by the network upgrades. This component involves $1.19b in nominal capex and opex, peaking in FY31 and FY32 before trailing off until FY40. At that point, annual spend is forecast to fall to $7.52m, reflecting the small re- maining number of copper-served premises and the long-tail nature of full copper retirement.

The notice also reveals that NBN Co expects to spend just over $1914 per premises on premises-side work including FTTP lead-ins and wireless & satellite CPE.

When combined with upgrades to the local fibre net- work and related infrastructure, the total program rises to around $8070 per premises in nominal terms. The telco has said more than 95% of the final FTTN premises cohort is expected to be served by fibre, with its forthcoming Amazon Leo-based satellite service or fixed wireless serving the remainder. The notice, issued by minister Anika Wells as first forecast in CommsDay on 25 August, states that “the circumstances in which remaining FTTN premises will be connected to a non-fixed line technology will be determined by NBN Co having regard to the methodology agreed by the Commonwealth.”

The instrument sits under a provision of the Special Access Undertaking requiring the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission treat expenditure for a government-designated project as already prudent when determining NBN Co’s replacement module. This effectively cordons it from stakeholder challenge.

In an August consultation paper on NBN Co’s module application, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission noted that the minister had earlier indicated she was considering issuing such a notice. It added that “the minister has expressed an interest in ensuring that the content of any such notice, if issued, appropriately balances NBN Co having the opportunity to realise the revenues that are forecast from this program extension with managing the long-term cost implications for retailers and consumers from the effects of the notice”.

The notice sets out the government’s policy rationale, including its NBN Connect objective of enabling 94% of the fixed line network to access gigabit speeds by 2030. It states that “the NBN Transformation Projects are expected to provide more than 95 percent of the around 622,000 remaining FTTN premises with access to gigabit capability through FTTP technology”.

“This will be sufficient to achieve the NBN Connect policy’s speed objective outcome of 94 percent of the fixed line network having access to wholesale download speeds of up to 1Gbps. As part of the NBN Transformation Projects, the remaining less than five percent of FTTN premises require further design work to confirm the appropriate upgrade path for them to access higher speeds.”

Under the notice, NBN Co must separately report key financial and operational details of the 622,000-premise upgrade, including speeds ordered, actual capex and opex, and explanations of any variances. It must also report estimated revenue from upgraded services and estimated ARPU by technology.

Reporting will occur every six months until the end of 2030 before shifting to annual reporting. NBN Co must certify that each report relates only to the 622,000 premises “and that any construction activities or expenditures relating to premises that were covered by the prior 3.5m FTTP Upgrade Projects have not been included.”

Rohan Pearce

IN TODAY'S (FRIDAY’S) ISSUE

The September quarter saw a sharp reshaping of the NBN wholesale landscape, with Telstra, TPG Telecom and Optus collectively losing about 145,000 services in operation as challenger providers continued to grow and the Accelerate Great speed uplift pushed users rapidly into higher tiers. 

The Fair Call Coalition has urged the Australian Communications and Media Authority to reject the revised Telecommunications Consumer Protections Code, arguing that it fails to correct fundamental weaknesses in responsible selling rules and leaves consumers exposed to ongoing harm. 

Macquarie Telecom has expanded its longstanding relationship with Fortinet to deliver a unified secure networking solution for Australian customers. 

Google Australia has revealed new anti-scam measures available to local Android users, including Enhanced Play Protect, which can block the installation of malicious apps, and the use of Google Lens to identify potential scam messages via its Circle to Search feature. 

The Office of the eSafety Commissioner has warned about the potential for smart car features to be misused in order to monitor, track and intimidate women. eSafety said its warning came following reports received by the Technology-Facilitated Abuse Support Service. 

New Zealand telcos have endorsed the Commerce Commission's draft recommendation to retain regulation of voice fibre fixed line access services (FFLAS), but given suggestions for improvement to the regulator's proposed framework for conducting fibre deregulation reviews. 

One NZ has selected US-based IP and optical networking solutions provider Ribbon Communications to help launch cloud-native voice technology across New Zealand. 

A veteran of the 2000 telecom crash has warned that the artificial intelligence data-centre boom is showing "eerily similar" signs to the conditions that preceded the Global Crossing collapse, raising concerns about overbuild, circular financing and rapid technology obsolescence. 

New research from Cato Networks has found rampant use of unauthorised artificial intelligence tools, or shadow AI, within enterprise environments. 

Plus more

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